Ecclesiastes 1:9,
“What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again;
there is nothing new under the sun.”
Morgan Housel, the author of “Same as Ever,” tells what remains the same even though human civilization keeps evolving and the breakthroughs of technology have stunned us in an unprecedented speed. As an AI engineer, with the fast releases of new AI models every few months and extensive access to a variety of information, it could sometimes make me feel exhausted to chase these updates and distinguish what the right direction is in front of these new technologies. Reading this book gives me another perspective of thought to calm and listen to the voice inside my heart:
Among what I heard, read and experienced, what remains unchanging?
1. The Future Is Hard to Predict
People like to predict the future, but the future is hard to predict. Why do we want to predict the future? Predict the stock price is up or down? Predict who will be the next president? Predict when the traffic jam will happen on our way home? From my point of view, we predict because we want to control our future, and we control our future to keep ourselves safe and comfortable by making the right decisions in advance.
Instead of predicting the future, what is more clear is to have the fundamental principles in hand. The fundamental principles are the truth to lead us the way to see the trend. Human nature and science are two examples of fundamental principles. In the second part of this article, let’s see what the fundamental principles Housel would like to show us.
2. Key Insights of the Unchanging
Below are some of the unchanging key insights I learned from the book:
1. Jealousy Makes the World Move, Not Greed
The book mentioned that Charlie Munger used to say that it is not greed that makes the world move but jealousy. I guess that many people tend to feel better when seeing that we own better lives compared to others. If you have something, then I also want to have something like yours or even a better one. We do not want to be left behind.
My Thoughts:
Jealousy activates a competition game, competing to become better than others. If the essence of competition is to create something good, such as a cheaper AI model, then it makes the world move forward. However, if the essence of the competition is like two teams standing against each other in the same company rather than a collaboration, it is likely to head to a dead end.
2. Crazy Things Come After the Calmness
The world functions like a seesaw. When we are too optimistic and lose our cautiousness, a Black Swan suddenly appears and pulls us to the other side of the seesaw. Everything works like a cycle, whether in a financial market or in our daily lives. There are ups and downs.
My Thoughts:
What I learned is to train ourselves with the skills to balance what we’ve gained or lost. If we are in a positive cycle, then it is the moment for us to prepare for the next round of challenges. If we are in a downside way, pause for a while and then keep focusing on what we have to do, even if just a small step. It is not easy, obviously, but this is the way for us to differentiate ourselves and make the cycle trend move upward in the long run.
3. Every Size Has Its Best Fit
Expanding the business too fast or putting too much pressure on the body can crash the whole. People who suffer from gigantism are hard to live longer. Why? Even with a huge body, their organs are in the normal size, and this makes it hard to pump the blood from the heart to the whole body.
My Thoughts:
What is the best fit? It is good to push to the limit, but not good when it is over the limit. We lose the first purpose when we run over the limit since it is like the end or self-destruction. There is no next round if we do too much in one time. Again, it is a process of searching for balance.
4. Innovation Is Not a One-Night Thing but the Accumulation and Combination of Different Small Innovations
Many technologies started from their use for military purposes. The internet is one of the classic examples. The realization of innovation takes time. Leaving some flexibility to think instead of chasing perfection and shortcuts is the tip to innovation.
My Thoughts:
Still remember a pastor who taught me: “Build based on what has been done.” To create something amazing, take a moment to reflect on what we’ve done and how to enrich it with others’ ideas or new observations is the inspiration I got from this book.
5. Complexity Makes Us Look Good, But Is It What We Want?
People tend to show off the profession with jargon or using complex concepts to describe things. The complexity makes people look unique and no space to challenges, that is the image of authority.
My Thoughts:
If we cannot explain something difficult with simple words, it means we do not fully understand it. If I remember this correctly, this is what Einstein said. Complexity might make us look good but can also block the gate of communication and suffocate the opportunities of seeing innovations or hidden risks. So, it depends on what the purpose is. If the purpose of this conversation or presentation is to make us look good and without the need to reveal what really is behind, then maybe this is the way to go?
